Two Rounds of Rate Hikes, One Failed Market: November Shippers Should Negotiate on Transacted Prices, Not Posted Tariffs
1 November was meant to be the day liner operators pushed rate increases simultaneously on the Asia-Europe and transpacific trades. A week later, the market has delivered its verdict in transacted prices: the hike did not stick. According to Drewry's Container Capacity Insight, of the 715 planned sailings on the major east-west trades from week 45 (2-8 November) through week 49 (1-7 December), 56 are scheduled blank sailings, a cancellation rate of 8%. By route, Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean accounts for 46% of the cancellations - roughly 26 sailings - transpacific eastbound 36%, about 20 sailings, and transatlantic 18%. Concentrating capacity cuts on Europe makes sense: it is the main battleground for annual contract negotiations, where spot rates serve as the pricing reference, and blanking sailings is the cheapest lever available. This time, however, it did not buy a price increase.
The transacted market tells the story plainly. Per Linerlytica data for early November, Hapag-Lloyd was quoting USD 3,000-3,200 per FEU and Maersk USD 3,200-3,400 on Asia-Europe, both within the Gemini network, while MSC, the Ocean Alliance and the Premier Alliance quickly undercut at USD 3,400-3,500. Linerlytica's own assessment was blunt: the 1 November rate hike is effectively doomed. Set against the targets, the gap is striking. MSC had aimed for USD 4,500 per FEU to North Europe, 5,000 to the West Mediterranean and 5,100 to the East; CMA CGM targeted 4,900 and 5,200 respectively. Tariffs posted above 4,500, cargo cleared near 3,000 - the distance between the two is precisely the distance between an announced increase and a landed one.
The first round has not even settled, and the second is already filed. On 29 October, carriers published a fresh set of FAK rates effective 15 November: MSC lifting North Europe to USD 4,600 per FEU and the West Mediterranean to 5,300, with CMA CGM at 5,400 on the western Med. Whether the market believes it is another question, and the futures market has already answered: the EC container futures contract fell 12.89% over the prior week, then shed more than 3% intraday on 2 November to 2,560.5 points. On the physical side, Maersk cut its week 46 Shanghai-Rotterdam opening price to USD 3,000 per FEU, down another 200 dollars week-on-week and the second consecutive weekly decline; net of the 100-300 dollar settlement discounts that are customary in the trade, actual deals are clearing at roughly 2,700-2,900 dollars, in line with late September. The SCFIS Europe settlement index, at 2,304.32 points, up 4.8% on the week, is a lagging confirmation, not a leading signal.
The steeper fall is on the Pacific. Per Drewry's World Container Index, Shanghai-Los Angeles spot rates dropped 6% in a week to USD 7,514 per FEU, the largest weekly decline since June 2025, while Shanghai-New York fell 5% to USD 9,631. Drewry attributes this to weakening US import demand, citing the National Retail Federation's forecast that US ocean imports will fall 11% month-on-month in November. The cargo that piled up earlier on front-loading and tariff concerns is receding, and against that demand backdrop, capacity management on the Pacific has little to lean on either.
For shippers with cargo moving now, the first discipline is separating three prices: the posted tariff, the opening price, and the transacted settlement rate. A rate-increase announcement is an opening position in a negotiation, not a market price. Early November proved that even with 56 sailings withdrawn, prices fall when demand does not follow. When a quotation lands, skip the question of whether the posted rate can be honored and instead ask for last week's actual transacted range on the same lane - negotiate from the clearing price, not against the posted anchor. One is where the market actually clears; the other is merely the counterparty's opening marker.
The second judgment concerns timing. The second FAK round is filed for 15 November, but the first round's outcome suggests its fate will hinge on load factors in early November. If cargo can move in the first half of the month, there is no need to chase space or panic-book to dodge a nominal increase; if demand weakens as the NRF projects, spot levels in mid-to-late November may well be more attractive than the start of the month. The capacity genuinely worth securing early is the window from mid-late December through Chinese New Year: carriers habitually tighten space in the four to six weeks before the holiday, and that remains the more predictable rate-up window. Cargo that misses it may look back on November's quotes as the low point.
The third note is for shippers already negotiating 2027 annual contracts. Spot trajectory feeds directly into contract benchmarks, and this round's failure signals weakening leverage on the carrier side: the orderbook remains elevated and new tonnage keeps delivering, so blank sailings are a pacing tool, not a reversal of overcapacity. In contract talks, pushing for benchmarks based on longer-period averages and for price-review clauses triggered by sustained market declines is worth more than haggling over any single week's quotation.
The dividing line in this market is not what carriers post but what shippers accept. November will most likely remain a stalemate in a soft market, with posted rates repeatedly exceeding transacted ones. Shifting attention from announcements to transactions, and from weekly noise to monthly averages, are the two most useful moves while this window lasts.
