November GRI Day Approaches: Rate Hike Lists Keep Growing While Spot Rates Slip
The final week of October presented container shipping with an unusual contrast: carriers keep lengthening their November rate-increase lists, while the spot market quietly turns lower. The Drewry World Container Index fell 3% week-on-week to USD 4,429 per FEU on 29 October, with Shanghai to Los Angeles down 6% to USD 7,514 and Shanghai to New York down 5% to USD 9,631, halting two consecutive weeks of gains. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, released on 30 October, edged up just 6.01 points to 3,687.35. The headline indices look stable; the route-level picture does not.
On the increase side, CMA CGM is applying a USD 450 per TEU GRI on Asia to North Europe from November, Hapag-Lloyd adds USD 500 per FEU on Far East to North Europe from 1 November, and CMA CGM's GRI on Asia to Latin America reaches USD 1,000 per box. Maersk's USD 500 peak season surcharge on Far East to West Africa continues. Sailings via Suez carry MSC's piracy risk surcharge of USD 55 per TEU plus a USD 36 Suez Canal surcharge. On capacity, six blank sailings are scheduled on the transpacific next week as carriers keep managing supply to defend rates.
Will these increases stick? The past two months offer a clear precedent. The round of joint FAK announcements on 19 October called for USD 4,200-4,500 per FEU, yet transacted rates stayed well below, with the Europe rebound driven by blank sailings and the pace of the Suez return rather than announced tariffs. What is different this time is that the effective date is immediate: 1 November is the test. Our framework is simple. Transpacific spot rates are already falling and November US port import volumes are set to decline month-on-month, so blank-sailing support has limited staying power. North Europe has both GRIs and blank sailings behind it, so uptake there is more likely. Latin America and West Africa depend on regional seasonal volumes and should be judged case by case.
For shippers, four recommendations. First, do not budget on announcement tariffs; the actual transaction price on each booking before mid-November is the real cost, and the first two weeks after a GRI takes effect are usually when the gap between announced and transacted rates is widest, so compare offers down to the surcharge line. Second, if cargo genuinely must move now, book before 1 November to lock space and rate; leverage shrinks noticeably afterwards. Third, itemize base rates, GRIs, peak season surcharges and the newer Suez-related fees separately in quotations and contracts, with clear validity dates, to avoid reconciliation surprises. Fourth, do not chase the transpacific market; the downtrend is established, ship as needed, and reserve negotiation effort for confirmed Europe and Africa cargo.
