Peak Signals Pile Up on Transpacific: Shippers Should Rework Their Q4 US-Bound Plan Around a Slowdown
After three months of increases, the transpacific trade is showing its first clear signs of a peak. Xeneta puts Asia-US West Coast spot at USD 8,311 per 40-foot container and the East Coast at USD 11,525, with last week's gain a mere 0.2% on both coasts. Chief analyst Peter Sand puts it plainly: the US trades have peaked and should soften through the remainder of 2026; he earlier projected West Coast spot could fall to USD 4,500-5,500 within three months.
Shanghai Shipping Exchange indices confirm the direction. On October 23 the SCFI showed Shanghai-Los Angeles at USD 7,521 per FEU, down 0.05%, and Shanghai-New York at USD 10,388, down 0.16% - a second consecutive weekly decline, albeit a narrowing one. The settled-rate CCFI West Coast index fell 4.2% in a single week. Context matters: since the Hormuz crisis began in late February, West Coast rates have climbed 342% and East Coast 335%. The higher the climb, the bigger the correction potential.
Demand is cooling; Freightos notes transpacific volumes are finally weakening. On the supply side, carriers are still propping up prices with blank sailings: Asia-US capacity is being cut roughly 12-15% across October and November, with the East Coast absorbing most cancellations at 8-10 per month. Panama Canal transit has improved as water levels recover, but vessels still wait 3-6 days to cross, so the transit-time constraint on East Coast services remains.
One wildcard cannot be ignored: US Section 301 port fees on Chinese-built and operated vessels are suspended only until January 9. If reinstated, USD 120-470 per container returns to the cost base. Expeditors noted on October 28 that a reinstatement could push Chinese carriers to scale back US services, tightening capacity and actually lifting rates ahead of Lunar New Year. In other words, Q4 on the transpacific is not a one-way slide but a choppy market where softening and rebound risk coexist.
For US-bound shippers, we recommend reworking Q4 around a peak-and-decline scenario. First, split pre-holiday volumes into two phases: before mid-December, when capacity is relatively loose, ship high-value and deadline-sensitive cargo first; keep generous buffers after early January to avoid the overlap of the port-fee wildcard and pre-CNY space scrambles. Second, stop chasing high spot rates: once the downtrend is confirmed, waiting three to four weeks often secures a meaningfully better price - booking early only helps carriers defend the index. Third, prepare 2027 contracts now: US-bound contracts take effect May 1, with negotiations typically running February-April. A softening market is when shipper leverage is greatest, so start consolidating this year's volume data, target prices and flexibility clauses today. Fourth, in both contracts and spot bookings, write in the trigger conditions, amounts and pass-through mechanics for policy-driven charges like Section 301 fees, and agree on cost-sharing before the invoice arrives.
The transpacific story is switching from price increases to price negotiation. For shippers, timing beats direction: moving a month earlier to align shipments and tenders with the downturn is the single biggest freight saving available this quarter.
