Asia-Europe Rates Hit a 15-Week High: A Price Sustained by Blank Sailings, Not Demand
The Drewry World Container Index stood at $4,585 per 40ft container on 22 October, up 2% week on week — a second consecutive rise and a 15-week high. Shanghai to Rotterdam gained 3% to $3,632 and Shanghai to Genoa 5% to $4,152; the transpacific also firmed, with Shanghai to Los Angeles at $8,007 and New York at $10,166. The headline looks like a recovery, but supply and demand tell two very different stories on the two main east-west trades.
The Asia-Europe rise is largely manufactured through capacity cuts. Drewry counts eight announced blank sailings on the trade next week, against just two this week — carriers are withdrawing effective capacity to push spot rates up. Some lines have also attempted FAK rates of $4,500 to $4,800 per FEU from 19 October, well above spot levels, and the market doubts they will stick. The transpacific is the mirror image: blank sailings fell from six to two, genuine US import demand is underpinning rates, and Drewry expects stability next week. In short, Asia-Europe prices are held up by schedule discipline; transpacific prices are held up by real orders. One depends on carrier behaviour, the other on demand.
A counterweight is worth watching: congestion at major Asian ports is easing fast, with vessel waiting times at Shanghai down from 97 hours in Week 38 to 38 hours in Week 42. Ships no longer queuing at anchor means effective capacity is growing — precisely why carriers need more blank sailings to offset it. Meanwhile, weekly Suez transits edged up from 54 to 55, and more than half the containerships that had rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope have returned to the canal. That is a medium-term drag on Asia-Europe rates, though it has yet to feed through fully.
For shippers, we suggest three moves. First, on Europe-bound quotes, check validity periods and the conditions attached to FAK offers; during blank-sailing clusters, space confirmations slow down, so book key shipments early and hold fallback schedules. Second, for consolidated European cargoes such as fertilizer, chemicals and timber, consider monthly price locks or partial contract cover to avoid chasing spot at the worst moment. Third, do not chase the spot top: capacity released by ships returning to Suez has yet to fully feed through, and Asia-Europe spot rates will likely soften once rerouted vessels settle back into normal rotations — that will be the better moment to negotiate.
Treat this rebound as a window to lock space and rates, not as the start of a new upcycle. Quoted numbers will keep moving; keeping control of your booking rhythm is what keeps carriers' blank-sailing schedules from dictating your costs.
