What Q3 Earnings Reveal: Today's High Freight Rates Rest on Congestion, Not Demand
The earnings season is sending an unusually clear signal. Hapag-Lloyd raised its 2026 EBITDA guidance to USD 3.9-4.4 billion in late September, and when Maersk reports third-quarter results on 5 November, the market expects quarterly EBITDA of USD 5.1-5.5 billion — up roughly 80% quarter on quarter and nearly doubling year on year — with a further full-year upgrade likely. The market has already voted: Maersk shares are up nearly 60% since January.
But when you break the numbers down, the story inverts. HSBC estimates Maersk's Q3 loaded volumes grew only about 3% year on year while average rates jumped some 56%; Hapag-Lloyd shows the same pattern, with volumes up around 3% and rates up about 27%. In other words, these profits are price-driven, not volume-driven — and prices are high not because demand is booming, but because war, rerouting and port congestion have absorbed a huge chunk of the industry's effective capacity.
Two numbers illustrate the distortion. Container transits through the Suez Canal have recovered to only about 40% of 2023 levels, forcing most ships around the Cape of Good Hope. Jebel Ali, the Gulf's gateway port, is running at roughly a tenth of its normal volume, and even if tensions ease, clearing the backlog is expected to take about three months. Every extra day of transit time removes a slice of nominal capacity from the market. Much of today's so-called strong demand is cargo stuck in transit or stranded at ports — deferred stock, not new trade.
The spot market confirms the split. Shanghai Shipping Exchange data put US West Coast rates near USD 7,500 per FEU and US East Coast near USD 10,400, both around three-year highs, while Europe-Mediterranean rates have stayed under pressure as Suez transits partially resume. Within a single carrier's network, pricing logic now differs radically by route.
The judgment that really matters for shippers lies ahead, and it is not in dispute: 2027. Net container fleet capacity is projected to grow about 7% in 2027 against low-single-digit effective demand growth, accelerating to roughly 10% in 2028 versus about 4% demand growth. Leading analysts already forecast Maersk's 2027 EBITDA shrinking by more than a third from 2026. Today's high rates rest on a congestion premium, and that premium will fade quickly once Suez transits keep recovering and the Middle East backlog clears.
Four practical recommendations.
First, build your Q4 budget on two scenarios: prolonged rerouting and congestion means rates oscillate at high levels; an accelerating return to Suez means European lanes come under pressure as effective capacity floods back. Model both, and write the 2027 second-half downside case into your cost assumptions now.
Second, watch two leading indicators: weekly Suez Canal transits and the pace of recovery at Middle East gateway ports. When these turn, the premium on Europe and Middle East routes softens first — faster than any composite index.
Third, match strategy to cargo. For schedule-sensitive cargo such as non-ferrous metals and project cargo, use this window — carriers are cash-rich and eager to lock 2027 volumes — to negotiate contracts with guaranteed space and rollover compensation written in. For cost-sensitive cargo such as fertilizers and timber, stay largely on spot and buy in batches when European lane rates dip.
Fourth, book as if you are still in a high-rate market: lock space two to three weeks ahead, and audit every surcharge line — carbon levies, Suez surcharges, piracy risk premiums. Comparing base rates alone tells you nothing.
In one sentence: the carriers' feast is being paid for by congestion. Shippers should lock what needs locking, and keep flexibility where it counts, before the party ends.
