Six Out of Ten Blank Sailings Hit Asia-US Before Early November: Three Things US-Bound Shippers Must Guard Against
After the Golden Week holiday, transpacific rates look calm: spot rates to the US West Coast slipped about 3% last week to roughly $8,322 per FEU, while East Coast held flat near $9,600 per FEU. The capacity picture tells a completely different story. Drewry's cancelled-sailings tracker shows 58 of 712 scheduled sailings between 28 September and 1 November have been blanked, and about 64% of those, close to 37 sailings, are on Asia-US lanes. Carriers have announced capacity cuts of 12%-15% on Asia-US services for October and November. In other words, rate stability here is engineered through cancellations, not the result of a balanced market.
The blade falls mainly on the East Coast. East Coast blankings are concentrated on services such as Empire, Amberjack, Emerald and TP12, running at roughly 8-10 blank sailings per month through November; the West Coast is milder, with the Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance combining for about 5-7 blanks across October and November, mostly affecting Shanghai and Ningbo departures to Los Angeles and Long Beach. The reasoning is worth noting: the Panama Canal restored Neopanamax draft to 49 feet from 15 October and daily transits back to 10 slots, yet carriers are cutting East Coast sailings anyway. That tells you the real purpose of this round of blanking is capacity discipline to support rates, not a passage problem. Add one date: the pause on US fees for China-linked ships expires on 9 November, and unless the USTR extends it, carriers are planning for surcharges. East Coast services run longer, cost more per voyage and carry more policy uncertainty, so they get cut first.
For shippers, the risk is not on the quotation sheet; it hides in three easily missed places. First, the cross-month rollover risk: cargo booked in late October that gets rolled into November lands in a new rate-increase window, and a shipment can end up costing several hundred dollars more rather than less. When booking, get the carrier or agent to confirm in writing which rate period the sailing date belongs to, and make sure the re-booking terms after a rollover are locked on paper at the original rate. Second, schedule volatility: global on-time performance was only 49.9% in August, with late vessels averaging seven days behind; rail-bound containers at Los Angeles and Long Beach sat 6.75 days in August, the longest in a year. Safety stock should be sized against the variance, not the average transit time, especially for shippers wrapping up Black Friday replenishment where a one-week slip can mean a stockout. Third, the hidden cost of the West Coast workaround: routing urgent cargo via the West Coast and hauling inland by rail or truck is a common fix, but rail dwell approaching seven days at LA/LB means the inland leg is neither fast nor cheap, so check free time and inland rates before rerouting.
A-Choice's advice for clients shipping to the US East Coast comes down to three points: for anything that must sail before early November, lock space two to three weeks ahead now and prefer services with guaranteed-loading terms; verify free time for both container and terminal on every booking confirmation, because on the East Coast demurrage can start even when the vessel arrives on time, thanks to inland congestion; and put the 9 November ship-fee date into your Q4 cost planning. If a surcharge lands, door-to-door costs to the East Coast are likely to rise further, so while the current rate window is open, settle Q4 freight terms with your buyers before it closes.
