Intra-Asia Freight Rates Fall for Two Straight Weeks: How Shippers to Southeast Asia Should Time Their Bookings
On 15 October, Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index (IACI) was assessed at USD 1,453 per 40ft container, down 3% week-on-week. This marks the second consecutive weekly decline after the National Day Golden Week: the index had already slipped 1% to USD 1,503 on 8 October, bringing the two-week cumulative drop to roughly 4.3%. From late August through the end of September, the IACI had risen for six straight weeks to post-Covid highs, peaking at USD 1,518 in early October.
Yet the year-on-year picture remains striking. At USD 1,453, the index is still up approximately 198% to 209% compared with the same week last year. For shippers, the week-on-week decline offers psychological relief, but the actual freight cost remains roughly double what it was a year ago.
**The retreat is not uniform across lanes.**
Spot rates from Shanghai to Singapore fell 7% to USD 1,973 per 40ft, Shanghai to Busan dropped 8% to USD 1,000, and Shanghai to Jawaharlal Nehru Port (Mumbai) tumbled 11% to USD 3,370. All three lanes share a common driver: slower factory restarts after Golden Week and some easing of port backlogs, which together loosened the supply-demand margin.
On the other side of the ledger, the Shanghai–Jebel Ali rate held firm at USD 8,416, virtually unchanged. Tensions in the Middle East persist, with merchant vessels still being targeted in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and carriers have not reduced the risk premium on this lane. In other words, the "intra-Asia" umbrella now covers lanes moving in completely different directions.
The Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI), published on 17 October, adds further nuance for ASEAN trades: Ningbo to Ho Chi Minh City rose 4.6% week-on-week, while Ningbo to Manila surged 9.6%. This contrasts sharply with the declines seen from Shanghai, underscoring that intra-Asia rates are not monolithic. They depend on the specific origin port, destination, and slot density on each service. For shippers moving cargo out of South China, pressure on Ho Chi Minh and Manila is actually increasing, not easing.
**Improved port efficiency is one engine behind the pullback.**
Asia's major hubs used the Golden Week lull to clear backlogs. Average vessel waiting times at Busan fell from 26 hours to 23, Mumbai from 42 to 24, and Singapore from 50 to 34. Faster port turnaround means each vessel can complete more voyages in a given period, effectively adding capacity and weighing on spot rates.
How long this efficiency dividend lasts depends on two variables. First, whether the post-holiday restocking wave refills terminals—mid-to-late October is the traditional Q4 inventory-replenishment window, and a cargo rebound could quickly push waiting times back up. Second, whether weather or geopolitical disruptions resurface. The typhoon season has largely passed, but uncertainty in the Middle East and Red Sea remains unresolved.
**New supply is being lined up on the capacity side.**
OOCL will launch its China–Cambodia–Thailand service (CCT4) on 23 October, calling Nansha, Shekou, Sihanoukville, and Songkhla. For cargo that previously transhipped via Singapore or Tanjung Pelepas, this offers a potential direct alternative.
Separately, Regional Container Lines, PIL, HMM, and Shanghai Jin Jiang Shipping plan to jointly launch a China–Indonesia–Straits service on 8 November, deploying feeder vessels of 2,742 to 4,782 TEU. At the same time, Bengal Tiger Line, KMTC, Interasia Lines, and Wan Hai are removing the Singapore call from their jointly operated CCS/CI5/FME2 service and reallocating capacity to Qingdao, Busan, Shanghai, Shekou, Port Klang, Chennai, and other ports.
Whether these network adjustments add or subtract net capacity to Southeast Asia is still unclear. However, a Linerlytica report highlights a structural constraint: new feeder vessel deliveries—the workhorses of the intra-Asia trade—remain scarce. Only five Bangkok-max units have been delivered so far this year. Even as carriers reshuffle strings, total slot growth is constrained, making a sharp, sustained rate collapse unlikely.
**Operational recommendations by commodity type for A-Choice shippers.**
A-Choice's core Southeast Asia lanes carry non-ferrous metals, energy products, agricultural fertilizers, timber logs, and project cargo. Each commodity has different sensitivity to freight volatility, and the response should be tailored accordingly.
Non-ferrous metals and project cargo are typically high-value, large-volume shipments where absolute freight movements matter significantly. During the current pullback, priority should go to securing November contract or quarterly rates with carriers, capping exposure to spot volatility. For stable volumes, shippers can negotiate volume-based discounts and insist that bunker adjustment factor (BAF) and low-sulphur surcharges (LSS) be quoted separately rather than buried in an all-in rate.
Agricultural fertilizers and timber logs are lower-value bulk commodities where freight represents a high share of landed cost and sensitivity to spot prices is acute. Shippers should monitor Shanghai–Singapore and Shanghai–Laem Chabang spot quotes closely and look for opportunities to lock in partial volumes in the USD 1,450–1,500 per 40ft range. Rather than committing the entire Q4 volume in one batch, split the cargo into two or three tranches matched to different vessel arrivals to spread price risk.
For energy products, A-Choice also serves Middle East lanes where intra-Asia short-sea or transhipment movements are common. With the Jebel Ali rate still elevated, shippers should evaluate whether alternative discharge ports such as Khor Fakkan or Fujairah, followed by inland haulage or lightering, can shorten both transit time and cost. The Gemini Far East–Middle East direct service (FM1/AGX) that resumed on 17 October now calls Khor Fakkan instead of Jebel Ali, and berth congestion at the new gateway is already building. An alternative port may actually save time.
**Four practical takeaways for all shippers.**
First, book two to three weeks ahead. Intra-Asia slot turnover is fast and spot volatility is sharper than on mainline east-west trades. Booking early secures both space and a relatively favourable rate during the current dip.
Second, compare quotes at the surcharge level. CMA CGM introduced a USD 75 per TEU emergency bunker surcharge on intra-regional trades effective 1 October, and this is not captured in the IACI. When benchmarking rates, require carriers to itemise base ocean freight, BAF, currency adjustment factor, and any peak-season surcharge separately. Otherwise a headline rate decline can be erased by hidden add-ons.
Third, confirm destination container-return conditions. The empty-container return crisis at Manila persists, and Hapag-Lloyd has suspended new bookings to Manila, Batangas, and Subic Bay through 31 December. If the cargo is destined for the Philippines, obtain written confirmation from the carrier on the return depot and free-time allowance before booking, to avoid demurrage and detention charges after discharge.
Fourth, track the actual launch and reliability of OOCL's CCT4 service and the November newbuild strings. New services often open with promotional rates or preferential slot release. For non-urgent cargo, it may be worth delaying slightly to benefit once the service is proven. However, for project cargo and non-ferrous metals—where schedule reliability is critical—mature services remain the safer choice rather than betting on a new string's teething period.
In summary, the two-week intra-Asia rate decline reflects a post-Golden Week demand vacuum combined with temporarily improved port productivity, not a structural oversupply of capacity. With feeder vessel deliveries tight, bunker costs elevated, and geopolitical risk unresolved, rates are more likely to oscillate at a high level than to fall sharply and sustainably. Rather than gambling on further drops, shippers should use the current window to lock in the volumes they need, unbundle surcharges for transparent comparison, and get critical terms in writing.
