Post-Holiday Freight Split Deepens: Europe Keeps Falling, US West Coast Holds Near Highs, Southeast Asia Edges Up
On October 5, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange published its latest container freight indices. The SCFIS Europe service settled at 2,412.18 points, down 1.2% week on week, extending the recent losing streak. The US West Coast service settled at 4,219.59 points, down 418.73 points, or roughly 9.0%. The Southeast Asia container freight index stood at 5,825.70 points, up 30.91 points, or about 0.5%. The broad Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) composite edged down 24.32 points to 3,662.30.
Spot-market spreads remain at historic extremes. The latest Drewry World Container Index assessment put Shanghai–Rotterdam at around USD 3,399 per FEU and Shanghai–Los Angeles at roughly USD 7,835 per FEU, a gap of more than USD 4,400 and the widest premium in fourteen years. Shanghai–New York was quoted near USD 10,428 per FEU. Transpacific demand is still supported by US retailers restocking and post-holiday cargo flows, while Asia–Europe continues to soften as more services return via the Suez Canal and effective capacity rises.
For A-Choice’s core cargoes, this divergence creates different operating windows. Non-ferrous metals, fertilizers and project cargo moving to Europe are now in a temporary down-cycle for freight costs. Where quotation validity and space allow, it makes sense to lock in two to four weeks of capacity, especially for freight-sensitive breakbulk and LCL shipments. That said, the Suez comeback is still being tested; some alliances are adjusting port rotations or routing on a voyage-by-voyage basis. Confirm the actual service route and estimated arrival before shipping, and build in a seven- to ten-day delivery buffer.
The small rise in Southeast Asia rates reflects regional restocking and pre-peak season space competition. For logs, non-ferrous metals and similar A-Choice cargoes destined for Vietnam, Thailand or Indonesia, book at least two weeks ahead and confirm empty-container availability at the same time. Southeast Asian capacity is relatively fragmented, so a single blank sailing can easily trigger port skips or transhipment delays.
The Middle East and Africa trades remain exposed to geopolitical risk and layered surcharges. Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have not materially eased, and carriers are still stacking emergency operation fees, bunker surcharges and transit-related charges on Gulf cargo. For energy products, chemicals and agricultural inputs, do not compare quotes on base ocean freight alone; war-risk premiums, bunker adjustments and possible inland transfer costs from port changes all belong in the all-in number.
The key message is that the composite index is becoming less useful. A single SCFI reading of 3,662 cannot capture a market where Europe is down, the US West Coast is holding near highs and Southeast Asia is rising. Cargo owners who make decisions only on the headline index risk mis-pricing real lane costs.
For Q4 planning, A-Choice Research offers four practical suggestions. First, treat lane-level analysis as mandatory: lock Europe while it is lower, avoid chasing US rates higher, and book Southeast Asia early. Second, require every quote to break out base freight from surcharges, paying special attention to emergency fees on Middle East, Red Sea and Persian Gulf routes. Third, for project and heavy-lift cargo, include the actual service route and a cap on change-related costs in the contract, protecting against unexpected inland haulage and demurrage from carrier-imposed port changes. Fourth, extend delivery buffers from the usual three to five days to seven to ten days across all lanes, to cover blank sailings, port skips and transhipment congestion.
The first full week after the holiday has given a clear direction: the Pacific is still expensive, Europe is easing, and Southeast Asia is heating up. For cargo owners, the question is no longer simply whether rates are rising or falling, but how to reallocate capacity budgets lane by lane.
