All Three Alliances Are Testing a Return to Suez: Asia-Europe Transit Times Could Shrink by a Week or More, but Hold Off on Revising Delivery Plans
Since the Red Sea crisis erupted, rounding the Cape of Good Hope has been the default setting on Asia-Europe trades. From September this year, however, the picture has shifted in substance: all three shipping alliances are moving their mainline services back through the Suez Canal one by one, and at a faster pace than most observers expected.
Start with the key signals. In the last week of September, thirty container ships over 4,000 TEU transited the Suez Canal, the busiest week since 2024. Since May, roughly 140 boxships have made the structural switch from Cape routings back to Suez, representing more than 2 million TEU of capacity. What makes this a turning point is that it is no longer sporadic testing but a network-level adjustment.
By alliance: Gemini (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) has already returned six mainline services to Suez, including AE5 to North Europe, AE11 and AE12 to the Mediterranean, and ME2 connecting India with Europe, with the Umm Qarn due to sail westbound from Tanjung Pelepas in late October. On the Premier Alliance (ONE, HMM and Yang Ming), the FE1 Southeast Asia-North Europe service will send the One Continuity out of Laem Chabang on 19 October, through the canal on 9 November and into Rotterdam on 19 November, marking that alliance's first return since it diverted in early 2024. On the Ocean Alliance side, COSCO's OOCL Spain completed the first westbound Suez transit in over two years on 4 October. One factor behind this collective pivot is a letter sent by the Houthis to the EU on 10 September, in which they pledged not to attack Europe-linked cargo ships, easing market expectations of risk in the Red Sea corridor.
For shippers, the return touches three levels.
First, transit times. Suez routing cuts 7 to 10 days versus the Cape. Take Gemini's Asia-Mediterranean loops: a round voyage shrinks from 98 days to 84, and a weekly service needs 12 ships instead of 14. For Europe-bound orders, that means shorter delivery cycles and less capital tied up in goods in transit and inventory.
Second, rates. Faster vessel turns mean more effective capacity, which is one reason Asia-Europe spot rates have now fallen for twelve consecutive weeks. With several carriers announcing mid-October increases that analysts doubt will stick, rates look set to keep drifting lower near term. For shippers with Europe-bound plans, the bargaining room in Q4 bookings is far wider than it was in the first half of the year.
Third, and most easily overlooked: the same price can buy very different delivery dates. During this transition, Suez and Cape routings will coexist on the same trade. Two quotes at similar rates can differ by more than a week in actual arrival time.
A necessary caution: this return is exploratory by nature. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd both stress that every voyage is subject to an independent security assessment, and services can revert to the Cape at short notice if conditions worsen. War risk surcharges also remain embedded in most Europe quotes. The routing you confirm at booking is not necessarily the routing the vessel sails.
Drawing on our operations on the Europe and Mediterranean trades, here are three practical recommendations.
One: at booking, ask directly which route the nominated vessel will follow and its estimated canal transit date, and have it noted on the booking confirmation or bill of lading so there is no ambiguity later.
Two: do not back-plan delivery schedules from the shortest post-Suez transit. When promising dates to European buyers, keep a buffer roughly equal to the Suez-Cape gap. Arriving early costs little; missing a contractual date because of a last-minute diversion costs much more.
Three: convert transit-time differences into cost when comparing quotes. Two offers a few hundred dollars apart, with more than a week of difference in transit time, are not equally attractive for capital-intensive commodities such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals or timber. With Asia-Europe rates on a downward track this quarter, this is also the window to lock in annual contracts with stable transit commitments for next year. Rather than chasing week-to-week spot moves, shippers would do well to negotiate full-year frameworks with carriers while rates are low.
