SCFI Falls for a Third Week, but Persian Gulf Rates Jump 7.45%: What Middle East Shippers with Heavy Cargo Need to Watch
The latest Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), released on September 24, came in at 3062.95 points, down 0.56% week on week and the third consecutive weekly decline. All four long-haul trades moved lower: Europe at USD 3,155 per TEU, the Mediterranean at USD 4,351, the US West Coast at USD 5,535 per FEU and the US East Coast at USD 8,040. With the pre-holiday rush tapering off, the market as a whole is cooling.
But there is one glaring exception inside the index: rates on the Persian Gulf trade jumped 7.45% to USD 4,584 per TEU, up USD 318 in a single week — the only route to rise.
The driver is the situation in the Middle East. According to Kpler vessel-tracking data, only about two commercial ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on September 21, down from ten the previous day, against a pre-conflict average of roughly 125 large commercial vessels per day. The waterway normally carries around a fifth of the world's crude oil and LNG trade. On September 23, a cargo ship was struck and set on fire by an unidentified projectile inside the strait, injuring two crew members. Heightened security risk, combined with some vessels rerouting, has visibly tightened effective capacity on Middle East services — and rates have responded.
For shippers on the Middle East trade, the uncomfortable truth is that the freight increase is only the first layer of cost.
The second layer is surcharges. Maersk has notified customers that from October 5 it will apply a Heavy Load Surcharge to 40-foot containers weighing more than 20 tonnes on Far East to Middle East services. For exporters of non-ferrous metals, oil-related equipment and other dense cargo, a fully loaded 40-foot box routinely exceeds 20 tonnes, so this charge is almost certainly coming your way.
The third layer arrives in mid-October. The United States' port fee measures on Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors under its Section 301 investigation take effect on October 14, and China has announced reciprocal countermeasures. While these measures directly affect vessels calling at US ports, carrier networks are interconnected, and the resulting fleet reshuffles could spill over onto other trades including the Middle East. Alphaliner estimates the combined impact on the ten largest carriers at around USD 3.2 billion in 2026 — a good reason to build some flexibility into fourth-quarter quotes.
Drawing on recent operational experience, here are four recommendations for exporters shipping to the Middle East:
First, lock in space early. Rising Persian Gulf rates, combined with carriers' post-Golden Week blank sailings, mean capacity in early and mid-October could be tighter than before the holiday. Orders with firm delivery dates should be booked at least two weeks ahead.
Second, cost heavy cargo properly. When requesting quotes, confirm whether the 40-foot heavy box surcharge is already included, rather than accepting an increase after loading. For overweight shipments, compare the all-in cost of two 20-foot containers — it is sometimes the better deal.
Third, watch for schedule changes from rerouting. When conditions in the strait fluctuate, routings and transit times can be adjusted at short notice. Build buffer time into delivery-sensitive orders and keep buyers informed of possible changes.
Fourth, monitor carrier tariff announcements closely around October 14. For any shipment involving US port calls or US consignees, clarify in advance who bears the new charges — do not wait until the cargo arrives at destination.
A-Choice's core trade lanes cover the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia and Europe, with a focus on non-ferrous metals, energy and oil products, fertilizers, timber and project cargo. We track capacity and rate movements on Middle East heavy-cargo services on a daily basis. If you have upcoming shipments to the region, share your port of loading and destination, and our operations team will provide a rate reference based on the latest market conditions.
