物流行业亚甄研究院 · 2026年9月23日

订了舱不等于上得了船:船公司密集取消上海挂靠,华东货主该怎么办

船期监测数据显示,9月上中旬多条航线密集取消上海挂靠,ONE、马士基、赫伯罗特、达飞均在其列,全球等待靠泊运力超过疫情峰值。对华东出口企业而言,订舱确认已不等于舱位落定。本文梳理跳港的传导逻辑,并给出五条可落地的应对建议。

对不少华东出口企业来说,最近可能遇到一件反常识的事:订舱确认了,货也装箱进港了,结果船公司通知,原定船舶不靠上海了。

这不是个案。船期监测机构HiFleet对比9月4日至15日两个版本的船期数据后发现,样本期内上海挂靠被取消多达57次,另有18次改挂其他港口。受影响的船公司名单很长:ONE的美东EC2、EC4航线有11个航次临时取消上海挂靠,相关货物改经釜山中转;马士基的Dragon澳新航线更是把上海从常规挂港序列中整体移除,上海至悉尼、墨尔本的货量改由其他航线承接;赫伯罗特第37周运营周报里,欧洲、美东、美西、非洲多条航线出现上海跳港;达飞旗下ANL的一条航线则同时取消上海和宁波,临时增挂蛇口。

跳港的背后,是华东港口这轮罕见的拥堵。多轮台风接连打断港口作业,Linerlytica数据显示,全球等待靠泊的集装箱船运力一度超过400万标准箱,刷新2022年疫情时期的峰值,其中约一半集中在以上海、宁波为中心的东亚区域。上海港7日平均等泊时间超过4天,外高桥部分码头等待超过9天;宁波梅山码头堆场利用率接近满负荷,港方甚至要求船公司将本地出口货的甩柜比例控制在10%以内。更麻烦的是时间窗口:中秋与国庆两个假期之间只有三个正常工作日,港口几乎没有完整的缓冲期来消化积压。行业普遍预计,这轮拥堵要消化到10月中下旬。

对货主而言,跳港和拥堵的组合意味着一件事:船期表上的上海,不一定是最终执行的上海。订舱确认只是第一步,原定船舶能否靠港、货物走哪条路径出运,都存在变数。尤其是已经放舱、装箱甚至进港的货物,一旦船舶跳港,改配下一班船还是改走其他港口中转,对应的时间、截关节点和费用可能完全不同。

结合近期操作实践,给华东出口企业五条建议:

第一,把订舱确认当作待核实项而非最终方案。9月下旬至10月的船期,装柜前务必向船代或船公司核实实际船名航次是否仍挂靠原定起运港,不要只看最初的Booking Confirmation。

第二,跳港发生后第一时间确认替代路径。是改配下一班船,还是经釜山、香港、蛇口等地中转?两种方案的出口时间和费用结构差别很大,应要求船公司给出书面处理方案,明确改配安排与额外费用的责任归属。

第三,重新核定ETA并同步客户。原船跳港后,即使提供了替代安排,目的港到达时间通常也会后移,有交期约束的订单要提前与客户沟通,避免违约争议。

第四,评估周边港口分流。本轮拥堵中青岛港等泊仅约1天,明显好于上海、宁波。对交期敏感的货物,可以提前对比青岛、连云港等港口的船期与综合成本,把改港决策做在出运前而不是货已进港后。

第五,为节前抢运预留缓冲。假期前集中出货叠加港口限流,甩柜、晚开、落箱费用上涨都可能发生,建议关键订单比常规计划提前一周以上安排进港,并在报价中预留相应的弹性。

A-Choice位于徐州,服务华东腹地的有色金属、农资化肥、木材原木与工程大件货主,对上海、宁波、青岛、连云港各港区的实际作业状态保持日常跟踪。如您的出运计划涉及近期上海、宁波船期,欢迎提交起运港与目的港,我们的操作团队会结合当前跳港与拥堵情况给出替代方案建议。

English Version / 英文版

A Booking Is Not a Berth: Carriers Are Skipping Shanghai, and What East China Shippers Should Do About It

Some East China exporters have run into something counterintuitive recently: the booking was confirmed, the container was stuffed and gated in, and then the carrier announced the vessel would no longer call at Shanghai.

This is not an isolated case. HiFleet, a schedule monitoring service, compared two versions of vessel schedules covering 4-15 September and counted 57 Shanghai call omissions in its sample, plus 18 calls replaced by other ports. The list of affected carriers is long: ONE temporarily omitted Shanghai on 11 sailings of its EC2 and EC4 Asia-US East Coast services, rerouting the cargo via Busan; Maersk removed Shanghai from the regular rotation of its Dragon Australia service altogether, transferring Shanghai-Sydney and Melbourne volumes to another loop; Hapag-Lloyd's week 37 operational update showed Shanghai omissions across Europe, US East Coast, US West Coast and Africa services; and an ANL service under CMA CGM dropped both Shanghai and Ningbo, picking up Shekou instead.

Behind these omissions lies an unusual congestion episode in East China. Repeated typhoons disrupted port operations, and according to Linerlytica, containership capacity waiting at anchorage worldwide at one point exceeded 4 million TEU, surpassing the pandemic-era peak of 2022, with roughly half of it concentrated in East Asia around Shanghai and Ningbo. The seven-day average waiting time at Shanghai exceeded 4 days, with some Waigaoqiao terminals stretching past 9 days; yard utilization at Ningbo's Meishan terminal approached full capacity, and the port has asked carriers to keep local export rollovers within 10%. The timing makes it worse: only three normal working days separate the Mid-Autumn Festival from the National Day Golden Week, leaving ports almost no continuous window to clear the backlog. Most observers expect congestion to persist into mid-to-late October.

For shippers, the combination of port omissions and congestion boils down to one reality: Shanghai on the schedule is not necessarily the Shanghai that gets executed. A booking confirmation is only the first step; whether the nominated vessel actually calls, and which routing your cargo ultimately takes, are both open questions. This matters most for cargo that is already booked, stuffed or gated in - once the vessel omits the port, rebooking onto the next sailing versus transshipping through another port involves very different timelines, cut-offs and costs.

Drawing on recent operational experience, here are five recommendations for East China exporters:

First, treat the booking confirmation as something to verify, not as a final plan. For sailings from late September through October, confirm with the carrier or its agent before trucking the container whether the nominated vessel still calls at your intended loading port. Do not rely solely on the original booking confirmation.

Second, when an omission is announced, confirm the alternative routing immediately. Will the cargo roll to the next sailing, or transship via Busan, Hong Kong or Shekou? The two options differ significantly in timing and cost. Ask the carrier for a written disposition covering the rebooking arrangement and responsibility for any additional charges.

Third, recalculate the ETA and inform your customers. Even when a substitute arrangement is offered, arrival at destination is usually later than planned. For orders with contractual deadlines, communicate early to avoid disputes.

Fourth, evaluate nearby alternative ports. In the current congestion, vessels at Qingdao waited only about a day on average - far better than Shanghai or Ningbo. For time-sensitive cargo, compare schedules and total costs from Qingdao or Lianyungang in advance, and make any port change decision before the container is gated in, not after.

Fifth, build buffer into pre-holiday shipments. With cargo surging ahead of the holidays and ports restricting intake, rollovers, late departures and rising container storage fees are all plausible. Book critical shipments for gate-in at least a week earlier than usual and build flexibility into your quotations.

A-Choice is based in Xuzhou and serves inland East China shippers of non-ferrous metals, fertilizer, timber logs and project cargo, tracking day-to-day conditions across Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao and Lianyungang. If your upcoming shipment involves Shanghai or Ningbo sailings, share your port of loading and destination with us and our operations team will suggest alternatives that account for the current omissions and congestion.

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