SCFI Rises for a Seventh Week: Why Southeast Asia Rates Jumped 13% and How to Secure Space Before Golden Week
The latest Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) printed 3,662.18, up 72.13 points or 2% week on week - a seventh consecutive weekly gain.
Reading it as a broad-based rally would be a mistake. The real story is divergence: Far East to US West Coast rose to USD 7,339 per FEU, up 1.33% on the week; US East Coast reached USD 10,479, up 1.5%. Far East to Southeast Asia, however, climbed USD 117 to USD 1,010 per TEU, a 13.1% weekly jump and the first break above USD 1,000.
Europe and the Mediterranean moved the other way. Far East to Europe fell to USD 2,545 per TEU, down 3.7%, while the Mediterranean dropped 8.13% to USD 3,299.
Why Southeast Asia Moved Hardest
The surge is not a demand explosion. It is three forces landing at once.
First, weather. Recent typhoons disrupted operations at major Chinese ports, and delays propagated to transhipment hubs such as Singapore, compressing effective capacity in the region.
Second, pre-holiday front-loading. With Golden Week approaching, shippers are pulling shipments forward, concentrating volumes into a short window.
Third, capacity management. Carriers are blanking and consolidating sailings to defend rate levels. Drewry expects 79 blank sailings across the major east-west trades between 14 September and 18 October, roughly 11% of scheduled voyages, with transpacific eastbound services accounting for around 52% of announced cancellations.
Port Congestion Is the Bigger Schedule Risk
Time lost to congestion is easier to underestimate than a rate number. Carriers currently report average waiting times at Shanghai of roughly 5 to 11 days depending on vessel size and service, around 3 to 6 days at Ningbo, and about 3 to 4 days for larger vessels calling Yantian.
In practice, that means a booked sailing can still depart more than a week behind the published schedule. For orders with delivery commitments, this belongs in the quotation stage - not discovered after the cargo is ready.
The Other Side: Panama and the Suez Return
Europe is being shaped by two different variables.
Panama. Below-expected rainfall in the canal watershed has led the authority to cut daily Panamax slots from 25 to 23 effective 15 September, with Neopanamax held at nine per day. Vessels arriving without confirmed reservations should expect longer waits.
Suez. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd confirmed four additional Gemini services - AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2 - will shift from Cape of Good Hope routing back to the Suez Canal and Red Sea corridor, covering Asia-North Europe, Asia-Mediterranean and India-Europe trades, with initial westbound transitions from 19 September. Restored transits add effective capacity on the Asia-Europe trade, adding further downward pressure on European rates.
Four Practical Moves for Shippers
One: lock Southeast Asia space early. A 13% weekly move is unusual on intra-Asia lanes, and negotiating room shrinks as the holiday approaches.
Two: build port waiting time into your lead time. With Shanghai at 5 to 11 days, planning production against a standard schedule is no longer safe - allow at least a one-week buffer.
Three: evaluate alternative load ports. When East China gateways congest, Qingdao, Tianjin or Xiamen may offer more reliable schedules; price them as a standby option before you need them.
Four: Europe can wait. With routing returning, blank sailings rising and demand soft, a near-term rebound looks unlikely - there is no need to chase rates for non-urgent cargo.
What We Can Do
A-Choice covers Southeast Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Europe, specialising in non-ferrous metals, energy and oil products, fertiliser and agro-inputs, timber and logs, and project and out-of-gauge cargo. Submit your origin and destination for a reference rate; lanes not covered by the rate database are followed up by a specialist.
One caveat: space and rate volatility around Golden Week typically runs one to two weeks past the holiday. Shippers with cargo to move should aim to complete booking decisions this week.
